The hottest power rationing tide this summer may h

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This summer, the impact of power rationing on the steel industry may be limited.

it is another summer, and the power rationing plans of provinces and cities across the country will also be launched one after another. Wu Jiangming, director of Shanghai Wodun Steel Trading Co., Ltd., said in an interview that according to his understanding, according to the practice of previous years, some key industrial and mining cities in China have begun to implement specific power rationing measures, and the phenomenon of enterprise production reduction has begun to appear. However, he also said that from the overall perspective, the impact of the current year's electricity tide on the steel industry is not significant

the practice of switching off and limiting electricity in previous years

every June, provinces and cities across the country will hold a summer meeting to meet the peak of electricity demand, which is still in the period of strategic opportunities, to discuss how to spend the summer peak period smoothly. Summer is the season with the highest power consumption in a year, and the use frequency of various fans, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, etc. increases greatly, which often makes the power consumption exceed the load

generally speaking, each place will formulate a set of structural power restriction schemes according to its own situation every year, taking the protection of civil electricity as the first. The first is to limit the power consumption of "three high (high pollution, high energy consumption and high waste)" industries, and even adopt the way of forced switching off for some enterprises whose power consumption exceeds the standard to save power resources

heavy industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals are among the "key targets" of power rationing. Wu Jiangming pointed out that "many cities issued the 2013 electricity rationing targets as early as last year. The government must first ensure civil use, and the steel industry will be considered at the end." However, he also said, "this year's power supply pressure should be less than in previous years, and the consumption of enterprises is also poor. In fact, from the overall perspective, this will not have a great impact on enterprise production."

the growth rate of economy and power consumption slowed down

the State Grid Corporation of China recently held a video conference on safety production in summer to meet the peak, which said that the power supply of "Sanhua" was basically balanced. The surplus power of northeast and northwest electric power is about 17million kW and 14million kW respectively; Beijing Tianjin Hebei and Zhejiang electric power are in a tight balance

the data released by the national energy administration also showed that in the first quarter of this year, the national electricity consumption increased by only 4.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.5% over the same period last year, the second lowest in three years

Yaojingyuan, a special researcher of the Counselor Office of the State Council, admitted at the 10th Shanghai derivatives market forum that if power consumption goes down, the economy cannot go up. There is a positive relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Simply put, the method of analyzing the iron content in lubricating oil can bring a GDP of 10 yuan per power consumption. From the power consumption since this year, it is obvious that the economic growth rate is declining

China's GDP growth rate last year "broke through 8" for the first time since 1999. The frequent "power shortage" situation in recent years may narrow the gap in power consumption with the slowdown of economic growth, and even reproduce the fair design of supply-demand balance. In this way, the pressure of power rationing on the steel industry will also be relatively reduced

According to Wu Jiangming, since June, some rolling mills in some key industrial and mining cities in China, such as Tangshan and Jiangsu, have been restricted, and the phenomenon of enterprise production reduction has begun to appear. Generally speaking, power rationing will last for more than two months to stagger the peak of power consumption in midsummer, but he believes that this year's power rationing and production reduction does not pose too much pressure on most enterprises

"take our steel industry for example, nearly half of 2013 has passed, but the steel price has not improved significantly, and the downstream consumption is relatively weak. Some steel enterprises not only do not resist the notice of power rationing, but some have consciously reduced production or even shut down the furnace for maintenance before this, and this maintenance itself will take about two months."

Wang Jinhua, a researcher at the "my steel" Research Center, also believes that "the impact of power rationing is two-way. While power rationing, it also limits the demand of downstream enterprises. In addition, the steel price has been constantly approaching the bottom line in the hearts of enterprises, forcing the reduction of production is to push the boat with the flow. For the steel industry, taking the initiative to reduce production is a natural choice in the weak environment."

in addition to the sluggish market demand and overcapacity, many steel enterprises also adopt the form of self generation for production, which also effectively avoids the troubles caused by power rationing in summer

"many large steel plants bring self generating equipment, and many customers have problems in the oil change of hydraulic material testing machines. Even steel enterprises such as Shanghai silicon steel sheet plant will sell self generating equipment, and they are not worried about power restriction." Wu Jiangming said, "China has experienced a 'power shortage' in the past 10 years or so, and now many enterprises have their own set of countermeasures, and power rationing and production reduction have little impact on them."

the combination of economic growth slowdown, narrowed electricity gap, weak downstream demand, low market prices, and adequate self preparation makes the electricity situation in the steel industry less severe this summer

"high temperature power rationing should still lead to a decline in steel production since June. However, I think that power rationing is just a catalyst, and it is the macroeconomic and supply and demand conditions that really affect the output. Under the current background, it is expected that this summer's power rationing tide will not have much impact on the steel industry." Wang Jinhua said

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