In depth analysis of the background and trend of t

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According to the in-depth analysis of the background and trends of the photovoltaic industry

data, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2015 was about 15gw, an increase of more than 40% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years, of which ground-based power stations accounted for 84% and distributed power stations accounted for 16%. The cumulative installed capacity is about 43gw, ranking first in the world

driven by this, the profits of midstream component enterprises have also improved significantly. According to the data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the module output in 2015 exceeded 43gw, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The average capacity utilization rate of 51 module enterprises was 86.7%, which was 6 percentage points higher than that in the first half of 2015. Most of the top ten enterprises' profit margins are in double digits. After analyzing the operating performance of 33 enterprises that passed the standard conditions in 2015 (excluding several enterprises that suffered losses due to heavy historical burden), only four enterprises suffered losses, with an average profit margin of 4.8%, significantly higher than the average level of 3% in the electronic manufacturing industry, and also higher than 2-3 percentage points in the first half of 2015

this hot trend can be further confirmed by the financial statements of listed companies. According to the data, up to now, nearly 30 of the 37 solar power concept companies have released the 2015 annual performance forecast, and 18 have achieved year-on-year net profit growth, of which 15 are expected to grow by more than 50%. Jiawei shares ranked first with 1490.16% - 1519.51%, followed by aerospace Electromechanical, and the net profit is expected to grow by 382% - 415%

however, not all enterprises upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have a good life. One obvious feature is that differentiation is obvious. Component enterprises with scale, brand and technology have full orders, and small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulties in receiving orders. Most of them are used for OEM or provide products for their own power stations. The life of upstream polysilicon enterprises is even worse. Under the seasonal changes of the global photovoltaic market, polysilicon products are also more under pressure than other links. Prices have fallen all the way, and most enterprises are still at a loss

however, no matter whether the industry is warm or cold, the industry is often "a few happy and a few sad". Huaxia energy carefully analyzed the past data and events to find out for readers those enterprises in the photovoltaic industry that are the most popular, the most tossing and the fastest rising, and analyzed five trends of the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2016

I. who are the strongest, most troubled and fastest growing enterprises

1. The most popular enterprises: GCL group, Longji shares, Trinasolar

photovoltaic recovery, naturally a group of enterprises will move from "cold winter" to "spring" together. In 2015, dark horses in the industry emerged one after another, and the pre disclosed performance of listed companies is the best explanation. The most popular enterprises are GCL group, Longji Co., Ltd. and Trinasolar

GCL group: holding five listed companies to fight for the new energy capital empire, Zhu Gongshan, who has always been low-key, rarely talks about the capital market. On January 8 and January 11, GCL group controlled by Zhu Gongshan sent two subsidiaries to the capital market in different ways, they are Tongxin optoelectronics and *st Xiake (). Taking into account GCL integration, which just borrowed its shell last year, GCL today is no longer limited to overseas, but has transformed into a new energy giant with two A-share companies, one new third board, and two Hong Kong listed companies

relevant data show that by the end of 2015, gclsi's self owned module production capacity had reached 3.7gw, ranking sixth in the country. The production capacity of the top five manufacturers of Trinasolar, Atlas and Hanhua was between 4gw and 4.5gw. In 2016, gclsi's self owned photovoltaic module production capacity is expected to further expand to more than 6Gw

another noteworthy point is that in the composition of GCL integrated photovoltaic modules, 3gw of them are high-efficiency module capacity, and its "xinjingang" high-efficiency modules released at the end of 2015 will also be mass produced this year. Gclsi's high-efficiency components have entered the market strongly. Gclsi has provided high-efficiency components for important customers such as CIC, PowerChina, Jiangshan holdings, ZTE, Adani in India, and its differentiated competitiveness is gradually becoming prominent

Longji shares: rapid expansion, the upward momentum is difficult to stop

on November 17, 2014, Longji shares acquired 85% equity of Zhejiang Leye Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. After the completion of the acquisition, Longji shares run through the whole industrial chain, which is like a duck to water

Longji Co., Ltd. recently announced that it had signed strategic cooperation agreements with six customers, including United photovoltaic and Linyang energy. In the next three years, it will provide six customers with single crystal silicon chips, cells and components. The strategic partners will purchase 9.6gw single crystal modules, 3gw single crystal silicon chips and cells from Leye photovoltaic and Longji Co., Ltd. from 2016 to 2018. The company's performance in the next three years will be strongly guaranteed

in 2015, the silicon wafer production capacity of Longji reached 4.5gw. Zhongbaoshen, chairman of Longji, said that our silicon wafer production capacity should reach 7.5GW in 2016 and 12gw in 2017; The component capacity should reach 5GW in 2016 and 6.5gw in 2017

according to the 2015 performance forecast just released by Longji Co., Ltd., the net profit attributable to the company's shareholders is expected to be 470-528 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60-80%, which also exceeds the previous market expectations. The growth of the company's net profit in the fourth quarter is an important way for the future development of building insulation technology, with a growth rate of more than 100%

Trinasolar: it has become the world's largest manufacturer of photovoltaic modules for two consecutive years

since Trinasolar strengthened its market layout in China in 2013, Trinasolar's photovoltaic module sales performance has been eye-catching. In 2014, the shipment volume of Trinasolar components increased by 41.9% to 3.66gw compared with that in 2013. According to the expectation released by Trinasolar at the end of November 2015, the annual shipment volume of Trinasolar is expected to reach 5.5gw to 5.6gw, an increase of 53%. This is the second time that Trinasolar has raised the annual shipment expectation in 2015

thanks to the record delivery volume of 123gw in the second quarter, Trinasolar raised the delivery expectation of 4.4gw ~ 4.6gw at the beginning of the year to 4.9 ~ 5.1gw in mid August 2015; The astonishing shipment volume of 1.7gw in the third quarter broke the record again, so the sales expectation was raised to 5.6gw

Trinasolar announced its withdrawal from MIP (minimum import price agreement) in December 2015 and was officially confirmed by the European Commission at the beginning of this year. However, this does not mean that Trinasolar's component sales will be affected. On the contrary, Trinasolar has a layout in Southeast Asia and India, and can avoid "double anti" through overseas component factories

2. The most troubled enterprises: Hairun, Yingli, hanergy

*st Hairun: twists and turns, Yang Huaijin was squeezed out of the board of directors

mentioning *st Hairun, using "twists and turns" is not enough, but "ill fated"

in 2009, Yang Huaijin led the management team to enter *st Hairun, and finally led to the backdoor listing of *st Hairun in 2011, which was developed against the trend in the "cold winter". However, in the past two years, *st Hairun has entered a troubled era

on January 23, 2015, with the help of the sharp rise before the announcement of the high transfer plan, *st Hairun's three major shareholders collectively reduced their holdings by more than 2billion yuan, and a week later, *st Hairun issued a pre loss announcement for 2014, with a loss of about 900million yuan in 2014. This puzzle caused by high delivery has been criticized by the industry

in December 2015, it suddenly emerged that Yang Huaijin resigned as chairman of *st Hairun. Yang Huaijin, who can be called a leader in the photovoltaic industry, did not turn the tide after becoming the chairman of *st Hairun. He lost money for two consecutive years. If he continued to lose money in 2015, he would be suspended from listing

fortunately, recently * ST Hairun disclosed the 2015 performance forecast, which shows that it is expected that the annual operating performance in 2015 will turn losses into profits compared with the same period of last year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 60 million to 140 million yuan, and the net assets at the end of 2015 will be positive. The announcement shows that if the audited annual net profit of the company in 2015 is profitable, the company will apply to Shanghai stock exchange for withdrawing the delisting risk warning in time after the disclosure of the 2015 annual report in accordance with the regulations

Yingli group: debt pressure, bankruptcy and reorganization to find a way out

since its listing in the United States in 2007, Yingli's profitability has not changed. For example, in the nine years from 2007 to 2015, Yingli only made profits in 2007, 2008 and 2010, and suffered losses to varying degrees in other years. In December 2015, the third quarter financial report released by Yingli showed that Yingli had a loss of $503.5 million, and the asset liability ratio climbed to 121.3%

it is understood that Yingli group's total debt is as high as 18.4 billion yuan, while its total asset value is only 11.089 billion yuan. Currency capital aluminum processing enterprises have begun to develop from single 1 raw material suppliers to solution providers, with only 1.605 billion yuan left. Its stocks listed in the United States continue to be low, making it difficult to raise funds to help themselves. Public information shows that Yingli has made it clear that it will focus on solving the problems of high debt ratio and debt restructuring in 2015

after the Spring Festival, Yingli, which is in debt crisis, seems to have a turnaround. Previously, some media said that Yingli received a loan of 3.3 billion yuan for debt restructuring, of which CDB will lend Yingli about 2.5 billion yuan, and the rest will be solved by the local government of Baoding City, Hebei Province, where Yingli headquarters is located

hanergy group: can you save yourself by giving up

at the beginning of last year, Li Hejun, chairman of hanergy, once surpassed Wang Jianlin and Ma Yun with a wealth of 160billion yuan and became the new richest man. The market value of hanergy film holdings once exceeded 240billion yuan, once approaching Li Jiacheng's Changjiang industry

the accident happened only a hundred days after being ranked the richest person on the New Fortune 500 rich list. May 20th, 2015 was a "thrilling" day for the photovoltaic industry and the financial market. On the same day, hanergy film, which is controlled by Li Hejun, suffered a warehouse washing decline. The decline reached a staggering 46.95% in just 70 minutes of opening, almost halving in one day, and the market value evaporated by HK $144 billion

since then, hanergy was investigated by the CSRC, and was really controlled in a closed loop. At the bottom of the system, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange ordered the suspension of trading; After the suspension of two related party transactions with the parent company, the performance plummeted, and there was a performance loss for the first time, followed by substantial layoffs. Not long ago, the media said that hanergy began to sell the group's hydropower assets and 15% of hanergy film shares; On December 30, 2015, Li Hejun sold 2.5 billion shares off the market at a discount of 0.5% for self-help, involving an investment of 451 million yuan. Now, Li Hejun reluctantly gave up his love and sold hydropower assets and shares of listed companies. It can be seen that the situation is getting worse and worse, and he is willing to resume trading

3. The fastest growing enterprise: Dongfang Risheng

the sales volume of Dongfang Risheng in 2014 was 850mw, and the sales volume increased by 1.5gw after expansion in 2015. The target for 2016 is 2.5gw to 2.8gw, which is expected to be among the top ten component enterprises for the first time

in the third quarter of 2015, the operating revenue of Dongfang Risheng was about $206.5 million, and the operating profit was about $31.1 million, an increase of 10122.17% over the same period last year

it is said that the strong sales growth is driven by the current support for the Chinese government's 2015 PV installation target of about 20GW. The growth of Dongfang Risheng comes from the emerging photovoltaic market and the sales of EVA packaging materials, and the photovoltaic industry has entered a new round of growth. At the same time, Dongfang Risheng pointed out that it recently signed a contract with Yongtai Investment Holding Co., Ltd. with a value of about $183million for photovoltaic modules used in the project

II. Five major trends in the photovoltaic industry in 2016

Nuer Baikeli, director of the national energy administration, pointed out in the report of the national energy work conference that during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the installed scale of solar power generation in China increased 168 times, which is the fastest growth rate among renewable energy sources


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